With westerly winds developing off Lake Erie early Friday afternoon, lake-effect snow will result in the typical east-side lake-effect belt.
Monday (New Year's Day): Cloudy with some lake snow possible. It's not uncommon for sunny skies "to be quickly replaced by blinding, wind-driven snowfall in a matter of minutes", according to the NWS, or for one place to receive heavy snow while only a light dusting falls a few miles away.
Winter Weather Advisory for areas close to Lake Ontario, for Niagara and Orleans counties, and also Wyoming counties from early Saturday morning to early Sunday morning for 4 to 8 inches of snow, especially closer to the lakeshore, and higher elevations in Wyoming.
Heavy snow - anywhere from 15 to 20 inches - could fall, with the greatest accumulation falling along the Lake Erie shoreline and in the Chautauqua Ridge.
But it will be cold with a high of about 17. A lake-effect snow warning is in effect for this area.
SUNDAY | Lake snow, otherwise clouds and sun.
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WEDNESDAY| Widespread snow showers.
Sunday (New Year's Eve): Cloudy with some lake snow. Because it is so cold, the roads and parking lots with the hard pack snow and ice won't see much improvement.
This is when a cold front comes to bring some of the coldest air we've seen this season.
The weather service posted a "hazardous weather outlook" about the conditions on New Year's Eve: "Temperatures will only reach the single digits Sunday and drop to near zero to 5 below zero New Years Eve night".
Temperatures will remain in single digits for the highs, Thomas said. Bundle up if you're going to be out and about celebrating the New Year Sunday night-Monday morning!
Because of the narrow bands that often carry lake-effect snow onto shore, the phenomenon is known for extreme variability in space and time.