U.S. insurer AIG sees up to $2B in losses from 3Q disasters


Morgan Stanley analysts said the losses were slightly above their estimate of $2.5 billion, but were manageable as it equated to about 2.6 percent of the company's book value.

Both insurers said the losses were within their expectations.

American International Group Inc (AIG.N) said on Monday it expected to book pre-tax catastrophe losses of about $3 billion in the third quarter mainly related to hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The company said its estimates are "preliminary and dependent on broad assumptions about coverage, liability and reinsurance".

Mike McGavick the CEO of insurance and reinsurance company XL Group Ltd. and the XL Catlin brand believes that the market will shift towards "more realistic and sustainable pricing for the risks undertaken", following the catastrophe losses of the last quarter which are set to cost the company around $1.48 billion. These figures are after "meaningful" reinsurance recoveries, reinstatement and adjustment premiums and redeemable non-controlling interest, but before tax.

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Hurricane season in the Atlantic is still in full swing and Morgan Stanley said it expects overall insured losses from this year's catastrophes to approach $100 billion.

The estimated losses are approximately evenly split between XL Group's insurance and reinsurance units. "The news should alleviate recent investor concerns about an outsized loss from XL and any concerns about capital raise needs", the update said.

The company also expects to take a hit of between US$1.1bn and US$1.2bn from the damage caused by Hurricane Irma, while other recent disasters, including the quake in Mexico, will cost it about US$150mln in additional catastrophe losses.

Markel said its estimate for the hurricane and quake losses is based on claims received to date and detailed policy level reviews, industry loss estimates, output from both industry and proprietary models, and a review of in-force contracts.